Reframing Low Birth Rates as an Existential Opportunity

Authors

  • Josephine Johnston University of Otago

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55613/jeet.v35i2.167

Keywords:

Birth Rates, Sexism, Racism, Policy, Ethics

Abstract

Where once overpopulation was labelled a major threat to the planet, sub-replacement birth rates are increasingly the norm. In 2020, nearly two-thirds of the world's people lived in regions with birth rates below the replacement threshold of 2.1 (representing the average number of children each woman must have for a population to replace itself in a generation). In Europe, North America, and parts of Asia, rates are especially low—0.8 in North Korea, 1.2 in Italy and Spain, and 1.6 in USA. This demographic trend is already reshaping families, neighborhoods, and nations—and is labelled by some as an “existential crisis.” In this essay, I acknowledge the substantial challenges that dramatically reduced birth rates pose for individuals, communities, and nations, before suggesting that they also present an existential opportunity—a timely chance to reframe public discussion of demographic change and align policies and cultures for equality.

References

Alderman, L. 2023. France moves to delay retirement, and older workers are uneasy. The New York Times, pp.B1-L.

Allen, K. 2003. The population debate in historical perspective: revisionism revised. Population Matters, p.24.

BBC. 2020. Hungary to provide free fertility treatment to boost population. BBC News. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51061499.

Beaujouan, E. and Berghammer, C. 2019. The gap between lifetime fertility intentions and completed fertility in Europe and the United States: A cohort approach. Population Research and Policy Review, 38, pp.507-535.

Berde, É. and Drabancz, Á. 2022. The propensity to have children in Hungary, with some examples from other European coun-tries. Frontiers in Sociology, 7, p.1009115.

Bracke, S. and Aguilar, L.M.H. 2024. The politics of replacement: from “race suicide” to the “great replacement”. In The Politics of Replacement (pp. 1-19). Routledge. And/or Abbas, T., 2024. The Great Replacement Theory. In The Routledge Companion to Terrorism Studies (pp. 176-181). Routledge.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2024. Country comparisons: total fertility rate. The World Factbook. www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison.

Chapman, J. 2022. The long-term decline in fertility—and what it means for state budgets.Pew Research Cen-ter.www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/12/the-long-term-decline-in-fertility-and-what-it-means-for-state-budgets.

Christensen, J. 2022. Elon Musk thinks the population will collapse. Demographers say it’s not happening.CNN Health, Au-gust,30.https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/30/health/elon-musk-population-collapse-wellness/index.html.

Cooke, M., 2006. Policy changes and the labour force participation of older workers: evidence from six countries. Canadian Journal on Aging/La revue canadienne du vieillissement,25(4), pp.387-400.

Cylus, J., Figueras, J. and Normand, C. 2019. Will population ageing spell the end of the welfare state? A review of evidence and policy options. European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies.https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/331978.

Desiderio, R.S. 2020. “The Impact of International Migration on Fertility: An Empirical Study.” KNOMAD Working Paper; KNOMAD Trust Fund Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.

Doepke, M., Hannusch, A., Kindermann, F. and Tertilt, M. 2023. The economics of fertility: A new era. InHandbook of the Economics of the Family(Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 151-254). North-Holland.

Ehrlich, P.R. and Ehrlich, A.H. (1968). The Population Bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.

European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE). 2024. Gender Equality Index. https://eige.europa.eu/gender-equality-index/2024/SE.

Fieldsend, M. and Smith, J.A. 2020. ‘Either stay grieving, or deal with it’: the psychological impact of involuntary childlessness for women living in midlife.Human Reproduction,35(4), pp.876-885.

Fodor, E. 2022. More babies for the state: the “carefare” regime of anti-liberal Hungary. InNew Labor Forum(Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 34-41). Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA: SAGE Publications.

Graham, S. and Layne, L.L. 2020. Sexism, Separatism and the Rhetoric of Selfishness. Selfishness and Selflessness: New Approaches to Understanding Morality,10, p.141.

Greenhouse, L. 2024. The new anti-Abortion argument takes us back to the 19th century.” The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/opinion/abortion-medication-courts.html

Haas, L. 2003. Parental leave and gender equality: Lessons from the European Union. Review of Policy Research, 20(1), pp.89-114.

Hoffman, F.L., 1909. The decline in the birth rate.The North American Review,189(642), pp.675-687.

Kim, J. 2023. Female education and its impact on fertility.IZA World of Labor.

Lesthaeghe, R. 2014. The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,111(51), pp.18112-18115.

Mackinnon, A. 2019. Mothering Reshaped: Fertility Decline,‘the Selfishness of Women’and the Smaller Family.Australian Moth-ering: Historical and Sociological Perspectives, pp.95-110.

Muzzaffar, M. 2024. Japan politician apologises for remark about ‘women removing their uteruses after 30’. The Independ-ent.www.independent.co.uk/asia/japan/japan-naoki-hyakuta-remarks-conservative-party-b2644795.html.

Nandagiri, R. 2023. 8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities: The case for rights and choices. United Nations Population Fund. www.unfpa.org/swp2023.

Nater, O. 2023. “World population day: Five reasons to stop panicking over low birth rates.” Population Connection. Washington D.C.https://populationconnection.org/blog/world-population-day-five-reasons-to-stop-panicking-over-low-birth-rates.

National Tax and Customs Administration (NCTA) (Hungary). 2024. Discount for first-time married couples. https://nav.gov.hu/ado/szja/szja-kedvezmenyek-2023/elso-hazasok-kedvezmenye

Rubinstein, Y, Juhn, C., Zuppann, A. 2020. Early childhood investments and the quantity-quality trade-off. CEPR Discussion Papers 15032, C.E.P.R. Press: https://cepr.org/publications/dp15032.

Reuters. 2019. Hungarian PM announces new loan, tax measures to boost birth rate. Reuters News. www.reuters.com/article/world/hungarian-pm-announces-new-loan-tax-measures-to-boost-birth-rate-idUSKCN1PZ0KY/

Rose, S. 2022. A deadly ideology: how the ‘great replacement theory’ went mainstream.The Guardi-an.www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/08/a-deadly-ideology-how-the-great-replacement-theory-went-mainstream

Sciubba, J.D., 2022.8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World. New York:WW Norton & Company.

Skirbekk, V. 2022.Decline and prosper! Changing global birth rates and the advantages of fewer children. London:Palgrave Macmil-lan.

Solinger, R. and Nakachi, M. eds. 2016.Reproductive states: Global perspectives on the invention and implementation of population policy. Oxford University Press.

Stark, L. and Kohler, H.P. 2001. The public perception and discussion of falling birth rates: The recent debate over low fertility in the popular press.MPIDR Working Paper2000-009.

Statistics Sweden. 2024. Children per woman by country of birth 1970–2023 and projection 2024–2070. www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-projections/population-projections/pong/tables-and-graphs/children-per-woman-by-country-of-birth-19702022-and-projection-20232070

Stevenson, A. 2023. China’s male leaders signal to women that their place is in the home. New York Times.www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/asia/china-communist-party-xi-women.html.

Stolnitz, G.J. 2017. The demographic transition: from high to low birth rates and death rates. InPopulation Growth(pp. 30-46). Routledge.

Swedish Institute. 2024. Sweden has made it easier to combine career with family life. Here's how. https://sweden.se/work-business/working-in-sweden/work-life-balance.

Swedish Social Insurance Agency (SSIA). 2024. Child allowance. www.forsakringskassan.se/english/parents/child-allowance.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Population Division. 2024. World population prospects 2024: Summary of results (UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 9). New York: United Nations. https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-population-prospects-2024-summary-results.

World Health Organisation. 2024. Fact Sheet: Aging and Health. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health.

Downloads

Published

2025-03-10

Issue

Section

Special Issue: Existential Threats and Other Disasters

How to Cite

Reframing Low Birth Rates as an Existential Opportunity. (2025). Journal of Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 35(2), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.55613/jeet.v35i2.167

Similar Articles

11-20 of 56

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.